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Where is Healthcare Going

Where is Healthcare Going

Where is Healthcare Going

  Everyone has an opinion in life. Some of us have many opinions. Opinions foster thought and reflection. The following is my opinion on the future of healthcare

        Ever since the privacy act which became law in the early 2000's, the federal government has continued to permeate our healthcare system. Medicare part-D was another government intervention a few years later which guaranteed Medicare enrollees a prescription drug program. Although the pharmacy benefits initially were not tremendous, the program has grown yearly in numbers and the benefits have improved. Finally ( but probably not the final change ), the Affordable Care Act has tossed more of our healthcare benefits to the federal government to manage. As each year passes, the Medicaid system has grown exponentially and your freedom to purchase any insurance on your own has also increased. Sounds real good. Doesn't it?

          Now in 2015, about 50% of the Affordable Care Act has unveiled itself. Those 3000 pages that no one read are actually becoming the law of the land. Maybe no one read them, but someone did write them. And no President Obama did not write this act, he just made it law.

          Now in the summer of 2015, there are mergers abound all throughout healthcare. Generic drug companies have lead the charge. Teva tries to buy Mylan but settles for Allergan. Mylan is trying to buy Perrigo. Pfizer buys Hospira. Hospitals have also jumped into the merger frenzy. Insurance companies have also followed suit. Aetna buys Humana and Anthem buys Cigna. Although these deals are no final yet, they will be before this year's end. So, the top five insurance companies will soon be three. And the largest growth area in healthcare may just be Urgent Care. Last year there were 600 million outpatient visits ( these include doctor visits, Emergency Room and Urgent Care visits ). Have you noticed the growth of Urgent Care Systems of late. There are lots of dollars to be made here. Unfortunately, specialty medicine will not grow this fast as the costs to the insurer increase greatly here. Is it cheaper to just take a pain pill or should my insurance company pay 100K for my new hip. You the reader can be that judge.

         So where am I going with all of this? This is where it is now my opinion. Over the next five years there will be unprecedented mergers in health care. The FTC will look the other way as the less player field will make it much easier for our Federal Government to control.  Mergers are never a sign of strength. The weakening link behind all the mergers are substandard reimbursement scales provided by insurance companies of which are actually becoming the right hand of  our Federal Government. By 2020, the insurance system will be two. The right hand and the left hand. And no, I am not referring to the two political parties that make up our government. With the two payer system, chaos will begin as patient care backlogs will increase. More and more sane young people will simply look at a degree in medicine as a curse. The baby boomers will permeate the patient base to the point that your provider may never physically see you. He or she will rely on triage partners such as physician's assistants , nurse practitioners , nurses, pharmacist's and blood work data to reach a diagnosis. And finally, the government created welfare rolls will swell and suck the last penny out of the hard working American. As chaos reigns, the federal government will have all of us convinced that it is now time to take over healthcare and thus the one payer system will happen. I think this is called national healthcare.

         I truly hope that I am wrong 100%. Even 50%. No, even 20%. Watch carefully all the mergers. Pay attention to the scorecard of health based companies. The less we have the closer this opinion will reach reality. My best advise to the reader is to be proactive in your health decisions. You will need to be smarter that the dummies that will eventually pretend to heal you.

 

Thomas Flamini
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